Discuss the Ghostbusters movie that was released in 2016.
#4856408
Ok, friends. I haven't seen a post yet for box office theories. It's all the rage these days with blockbuster budgets and insane opening weekends. Why not have that conversation about the new Ghostbusters? July is within reach and the first trailer has dropped. Dislikes on YouTube have packed a wallop, but the air on the Ghostbuster Fans board has signs of hope mixing in with the fear. Will this be the years F4NTASTIC flop or a surprise Jurassic World that thrives on nostalgia? What does this movie need to make for Ghost Corps to move forward with this new universe and new generation of Ghostbusters? Let's discuss!
#4856413
As much hate as it's getting now, I can see it doing relatively well in theaters, either from morbid curiosity or actually wanting to see it overall. However, it could also bomb like a rock. I do not see it becoming a box office success or anything resembling a homerun. There is entirely too much hatred involved in this movie, either the fans for the film or the film for longtime fans. Too much hate to be a success.
#4856416
I feel like the hate is an allusion. This movie will destroy with kids and females. The hate is being spewed primarily on YouTube but if you know anything about modern movie tracking, you know that up votes and down votes are not a metric that can accurately predict box office.

Box office prediction is generated from all sorts of metrics, two of the main ones being Google searches and total viewcount. I can't speak to the first one but as of right now, the trailer has more than 30 Million views between the YouTube and Facebook release.

Also, good and bad, there has been approx 400,000 total votes on the YouTube video. With 16 million views, that's somewhere around 3%. So 3% of all people who watched the trailer took time to cast a vote for like or dislike, that's not a great sample size.

The point being that the movie is polarizing and people are going out of their way to spew the hate and the love. I think it will do very well at the box office, maybe 75-100 million opening weekend.
groschopf, Alphagaia liked this
#4856417
Jangonate posted this in the reboot trailer discussion yesterday:
Trailer released on GB Fans Facebook page:
5,900 Likes, 444 Loves, 98 Happy Faces, 61 Worried Faces, 61 Sad Faces, 469 Angry Faces

2.8 Thousand comments, 19,000 shares, and 529,000 views

Trailer released on Proton Charging
364 likes, 59 loves, 2 happy faces, 16 worried faces, 10 sad faces, 11 angry faces

127 comments

Trailer released on Ghost Corps
236 likes, 51 loves, 4 happy, 9 worried, 3 sad, 14 angry

139 comments and 291 shares

And for something secular...

Trailer released on Entertainment Weekly
1,001 likes, 107 loves, 10 happies, 4 worried, 7 sad, and 87 angries

Seems like a trend. Why is it so different than YouTube? I think shankerzero's response is best, but I think it's harder to troll on Facebook since you attach a profile to your comments. I've learned some interesting things about the people out there in our world by clicking on profiles of those with hateful comments.

Edit: To put YouTube comments in perspective, what we've learned is that, from nearly 10 million views, 1% of of folks took the time to like and 2% took the time to dislike it. They are the more passionate folks, I'd assume. This means the feelings of 93% of viewers is unknown.
I think Paul Feig knows how to make a comedy that appeals to most people. I don't see this movie bombing. Everyone I talk to who isn't an adamant GB fan is into it. Even if its terrible (I think it'll be acceptable) it'll probably still make a decent splash. If its good then it'll probably make its money back easily.

Edit: Also Spy had a terrible first trailer but the movie was pretty good if you don't hate that style of comedy.
YHSCraig, groschopf liked this
#4856418
Since you brought up one post of mine, I'll bring another from another board I wrote that speaks to it:
I'm really curious about something. Like, this is genuine curiosity. I've never paid attention to anything below a YouTube video before. I watch the video and get out. But because people are pointing out the astronomical amount of dislikes for the video (whew there are a lot of them) I decided to take a look at it and a trailer for another movie coming out soon that folks are looking forward to...Batman v Superman. Right now Ghostbusters has nearly 275,000 dislikes (yikes!). Comparatively, Batman v Superman 14,252 dislikes. Interesting considering MOS was not the most well received film, but that seems average.

Here's where my question comes in. I chose trailer #2 for BvS since it was one of the better received ones (and didn't have Doomsday reveals) and noticed it has 168,423 likes and has been viewed nearly 25 million times. It was released back in December and has had time build those numbers. Now we look at the numbers for Ghostbusters and see that it has 144,530 likes and, already 15 million views. That's just after, what, two days?

I don't ever follow these things, so without doing some hardcore research (which I don't really care to do) I don't know what the significance of this is. Already this has more dislikes than most anything I've seen. Something about this has motivated folks to campaign against this. I know that this boils down to misogyny, hate for reboots, genuine criticisms of effects and style, etc etc. It's varied, I know, though the first comment I read was "This is so Gay!" and that gives you a hint as what mostly is to follow. We've discussed in detail what the dislikes and negative reception can do to this film, but this trailer is being watched by a lot of folks and actually has a good amount of likes for a film that's reviving a movie franchise dormant since '89 (not including comics and EGB). In fact, it's tracking right up there with Batman v Superman in those categories.

People call me out for burying my head in the sand. I'm not ignoring the humongous negatives, at least on YouTube. But are we just supposed to ignore the other numbers, too? For those who follow this stuff, what is your take to help me understand?

Because others have mentioned it, F4NTASTIC's last trailer received a bit over 3 million views, 2,886 likes and 704 dislikes. No where near the hatred for new GB on YouTube, but also doesn't come close to the interest people seem to have for new GB.
Yes, it's getting a lot of dislike and yes that's only 2% of views, but I find it interesting how the likes and views are still tracking alongside BvS, a film that is expected to have a $140 million opening weekend.

I don't think GB will have something quite so large, though. Near a $100 million maybe. I think a lot of folks will check it out just to see what the fuss is all about..." So this is the movie that people have been actively hating on!" If the movie ends up good, that would be the doorway for some good word of mouth and more people coming to see it after the opening weekend. If it's bad, then we will see the negative prophecies come true!

This film has a budget of $150 million, right? I think it's going to need to make around $600 million WW for this to be a success. Sequels might get greenlit for a bit less, but I think there hoping for this and more. For Feig, Bridesmaids, I believe, is his highest grossing movie. It made 288 million and I imagine his fans will support this new endeavor. Add in the nostalgia of GB, lowering the rating from R to PG-13, the love all things paranormal are getting and this could easily make that amount if it ends up being a good flick. Doesn't need to be fun, but it needs to be fun and cohesive with good chemistry between the actors. I'm optimistic, myself, but any of you reading my posts knows that.
#4856420
When I quoted you I didn't realize you were also the one who had started this thread. Haha. Now I feel like a jackass for quoting YOU to YOU. Sorry bro.

In regards to BvS I think thats a little different. BvS has a base from Man of Steel already (so there is some kind of quality assurance in place or at least a "you kinda know what you're in for") where as GB has been kinda fighting an uphill battle from day one as this unnecessary step-child.

Youtube is notoriously bad for trolls and haters. I'm not saying that everyone who has a complaint about the trailer is wrong. FAR from it. Legitimate complaints are a welcome part of any discussion. But I think its easy for those legitimate concerns to be hidden away by shitty people with shitty comments. I feel like the general consensus everywhere else (aside from maybe Reddit) is that it looks decent.

Also, the trailer itself was pretty poorly put together. Paul Feig just does not do trailers well. The next trailers are going to need to be better. I think it'll make its money back with families and their kids opening weekend since it is PG-13. Those early reviews are going to be important for it and so will word of mouth. If its good then it could make $150- $200. At that point (before even going overseas) I think Sony would be happy. Remember, this is clearly a big merch push for them. If the movie does do well with kids then merch is going to go flying. I think that's the key item here. Does the movie do well enough in addition to the merchandise sales being worth green lighting more stuff.

Disclaimer - At no point do I believe myself to be a financial wizard. Purely speculation on the limited information I have.
Alphagaia liked this
#4856421
J10kmn wrote:When I quoted you I didn't realize you were also the one who had started this thread. Haha. Now I feel like a jackass for quoting YOU to YOU. Sorry bro.

In regards to BvS I think thats a little different. BvS has a base from Man of Steel already (so there is some kind of quality assurance in place or at least a "you kinda know what you're in for") where as GB has been kinda fighting an uphill battle from day one as this unnecessary step-child.

Youtube is notoriously bad for trolls and haters. I'm not saying that everyone who has a complaint about the trailer is wrong. FAR from it. Legitimate complaints are a welcome part of any discussion. But I think its easy for those legitimate concerns to be hidden away by shitty people with shitty comments. I feel like the general consensus everywhere else (aside from maybe Reddit) is that it looks decent.

Also, the trailer itself was pretty poorly put together. Paul Feig just does not do trailers well. The next trailers are going to need to be better. I think it'll make its money back with families and their kids opening weekend since it is PG-13. Those early reviews are going to be important for it and so will word of mouth. If its good then it could make $150- $200. At that point (before even going overseas) I think Sony would be happy. Remember, this is clearly a big merch push for them. If the movie does do well with kids then merch is going to go flying. I think that's the key item here. Does the movie do well enough in addition to the merchandise sales being worth green lighting more stuff.

Disclaimer - At no point do I believe myself to be a financial wizard. Purely speculation on the limited information I have.
Hey, it's just nice to be quoted!

Oh, I know it's not apples and apples with comparing trailer reception. I think the key point is that A LOT of folks have seen this trailer and the grand majority of those opinions we don't know.

It wasn't the best trailer. I'm actually excited about all the recuts because some of them work better. This really just needed to be a good teaser to highlight the key elements of the film like gear and ghosts and give a taste. Save the story from a later trailer. Yes, Feig trailers aren't the best and a lot of that is because he refuses to fill it with all the funny parts. He keeps those for the film itself. That's great, but the problem is all the folks just looking for a reason not to like this film and the ones on the fence. They need to see something that knocks it out of the park.

Confession, I laughed a lot at "The power of Patty compels you!" I know a lot didn't, but different strokes for different folks.
#4856430
Rinji79 wrote:As much hate as it's getting now, I can see it doing relatively well in theaters, either from morbid curiosity or actually wanting to see it overall. However, it could also bomb like a rock. I do not see it becoming a box office success or anything resembling a homerun. There is entirely too much hatred involved in this movie, either the fans for the film or the film for longtime fans. Too much hate to be a success.
Yeah I see it doing well in the theatre but I think any goodwill the film gets will be lost when they try to make a sequel.
#4856444
A couple of things that may work in the film's favour are:

*It's a Ghostbusters movie, the first in 27 years. It'll certainly have a bit of the nostalgia factor working for it "Oh hey, Ghostbusters, I remember that being awesome!"
*It's a Paul Feig movie, the content of which is questionable, but he'll have some presence in the public consciousness from previous films, some people who were fans of his prior work may come along for his newest venture, especially with it having McCarthy in it as well.

I don't believe the film will be a roaring success, at best it could be a bit of a sleeper - and maybe just about make enough to have Sony think about making a sequel. Pixels is probably rightfully described as a commercial failure, even though there are people (myself included) who thought it was dumb but fun. The 2016 film can (and may well) end up in that category, fondly remembered by some, and derided by others.

I'd like it to be successful enough if it's good, as the success or failure will effect the expiration date on the tie-in merchandise for the classic franchise.
#4856445
My personal feeling is this will probably bomb in Australia.
Sure there are plenty of GB fans here but the general movie going public barely even knows theres a remake coming.
Add to that most people here consider McCarthy to be the new Sandler, hate Wiig and don't know who McKinnon and Jones are.
Theres also the fact that Feigs movies tend to under perform as well its not positive for Australian grosses.
Plus everyone in this country just downloads movies too which takes away from the box office.

I hate downloading but much like Bay's TMNT I'll download the shit outa Feigbusters.
Robzy liked this
#4856451
Okay, and I'll quote myself as well...
The poll is pointless this early on. The only way it be relevant is if they asked folks that went to theaters to see Bridesmaids, The Heat, and Spy. Sony picked Paul Feig and allowed his choice actresses because the average sales of over 250 million each movie (based on three previously noted).

The budget being 154 Million + estimate promotion costs of half budget comes to 227 million. So the film would have to pretty much zero non-Feig fans to kill it and even then it is paid for. A blockbuster I assume is aiming for 381 million. That may not happen, if that makes the haters any better.

The film will make back its budget and merchandise sales will reinforce promoting the film. The "fans" can ignore it, and keep bashing the film, but it has a strong setup. That is why Sony isn't worried. TMNT was pretty much the same deal years ago. Fans go ahead and shovel all you want now, but Sony has won. Point blank, so have fans of the brand going forward.
Paul Feig needs to keep his fans on board if he wants this to be a success. I wont bother comparing the film to others from the time as all them are of active brands that havn't been dormant 25 years. I find it funny that BvS and TMNT 2 are being compared. They both have had movies released in recent times and are active brands.

View counts are insanely high on the first trailer and that also speaks to the interest in it. Sony Pictures Entertainment youtube page ranks it at 6th spot right now with 16,824,906 views, and that has happened in only two days. All new things take time to accept, and Ghostbusters (2016) is not Ghostbusters (1984) and people will have to come to terms with it. New crew, different era, different climate. It would have been the same issue with Ghostbusters III as it would have been a pass the torch. :love:
Jangonate liked this
#4856510
I think this movie can be a success just on the general public (families with kids, curious folks, etc). I do think fan support would go a LONG way to help but the mass general audience is going to be the deciding factor, not us.
devilmanozzy wrote: All new things take time to accept, and Ghostbusters (2016) is not Ghostbusters (1984) and people will have to come to terms with it. New crew, different era, different climate. It would have been the same issue with Ghostbusters III as it would have been a pass the torch. :love:
I think you hit it right on the nose. The difference with a Ghostbusters 3 though (that would probably look very much like this movie) is that a lot of the fans would be on board from the start. A sequel alienates a lot of people (now a days) who don't find the original Ghostbusters appealing. Comedy is 100% objective but there does seem to be fads that come into play every generation and the long speech, reaction format doesn't seem to have survived to 2016. lol
#4856627
It's also a trailer that got a ton of views in a very short amount of time. If you want to look at the numbers you need to look at ALL the numbers. It's view count shows a very popular trailer and even though the like count is dwarfed by the dislikes, it's actually a pretty high amount for a trailer. We have 3% of people taking time to express their views and that is a poor sample size. What does it mean? It means people against the moving are quoting the dislikes as definitive proof this will be a bomb and people viewing the likes and the view count as call for celebration when, in fact, the answer isn't as clear as we'd like.
#4856643
Actually 2/3% is not a small sample size at all for a like to dislike ratio, it's a pretty healthy sample size for the amount of views. In fact, compared to Batman v Superman which has 25 million views and 190k likes/dislikes I'd say the sample size is better. Age of Ultron had 75 million views and 520k l\d on it. At the moment Ghostbusters is the most disliked trailer, probably ever, and is racking up a l/d ratio of 5:1 in favour of dislikes with an above average sample rate. I'd say this is a good indicator of the feeling towards the remake. It is fast approaching almost 200k more dislikes than likes.
#4856644
With the Like Dislike ratio, I look at it like this with these two hypothetical people:

I am just a casual fan. I watched the video on YouTube, Facebook or Twitter and enjoyed it. I did not go out of my way to 'LIKE' the video on YouTube.

I am a hardcore fan. I don't like the new movie. I didn't watch the trailer, but I'm gonna go and find every where I can to dislike it.


The Like / Dislike ratio on GBFans Facebook post of the trailer for example is 5% dislikes for 95% likes. Hopefully that is more representative for the core demographic Sony is going for.
#4856648
AJ Quick wrote:With the Like Dislike ratio, I look at it like this with these two hypothetical people:

I am just a casual fan. I watched the video on YouTube, Facebook or Twitter and enjoyed it. I did not go out of my way to 'LIKE' the video on YouTube.

I am a hardcore fan. I don't like the new movie. I didn't watch the trailer, but I'm gonna go and find every where I can to dislike it.


The Like / Dislike ratio on GBFans Facebook post of the trailer for example is 5% dislikes for 95% likes. Hopefully that is more representative for the core demographic Sony is going for.
I tend to take Facebook more seriously because someone needs a personal profile to comment. You Tube is a little easier to spam dislikes on.
Kingpin liked this
#4857187
Hairy Biker wrote:I just thought of something that will hurt its box office. Star Trek Beyond opens the following week.
I thought the Internet hated that trailer? I'm aware of the irony of that sentence.
#4857192
Simon Pegg hated it too but he came out and admitted "yes the trailer blows, but hang in there the movie is much much better."

I know people who have seen the trailer for both STB and GB16 and are more interested in STB.

Alot are being turned off GB16 due to jokes, the ghosts, Jones, McCarthy and Wiig.

Hell my sister and brother in law both hate Ghostbusters and even they admitted they'd watch the original over GB16.

Plus STB is very well established and people know what to expect. There hasn't been 25+ years between Treks.

I kinda feel GB16 will open, then disappear
deadderek liked this
#4857200
featofstrength wrote:
Hairy Biker wrote:Simon Pegg hated it too but he came out and admitted "yes the trailer blows, but hang in there the movie is much much better."
Simon Pegg also said "f*** you" if you didn't like Into Darkness.
Haha I never heard that but yeah it wasn't great. Theres a patten with Trek films and thats generally every other film sucks.
#4857213
Hairy Biker wrote:
featofstrength wrote:
Simon Pegg also said "f*** you" if you didn't like Into Darkness.
Haha I never heard that but yeah it wasn't great. Theres a patten with Trek films and thats generally every other film sucks.
...or in this new series, all of them! :love:
#4857265
If were talking money predictions i'm going to be a little generous here. I see it making a little over it's budget. or below in movie tickets. Maybe a hundred mill in merch. I see numbers below three hundred million. That's before the DVD/blueray/digital release and Halloween related stuff this year. I honestly believe the merch is going to make up for the ticket sales.
#4857276
CraigTHEOWL1 wrote:I feel like the hate is an allusion. This movie will destroy with kids and females.
Watch the 'family' audience drop off sharply if feig doesn't edit out most of the raunchy content that we have been hearing about. What father wants to sit in a theater with his young daughter and hear about vaginal flatulance? Disgusting and pointless.
deadderek liked this
#4857284
montclaire wrote:
CraigTHEOWL1 wrote:I feel like the hate is an allusion. This movie will destroy with kids and females.
Watch the 'family' audience drop off sharply if feig doesn't edit out most of the raunchy content that we have been hearing about. What father wants to sit in a theater with his young daughter and hear about vaginal flatulance? Disgusting and pointless.
*raises hand

I let her watch Ghostbusters with all it's inappropriate jokes so don't really see the difference.
JurorNo.2 liked this
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